Forecasted Questions
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Sep 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 17, 2024 to Mar 17, 2025 | Oct 17, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Sep 17, 2024 to Mar 17, 2025 | Oct 17, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 06:46AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 06:46AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025 | Dec 23, 2024 | 5% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 96% | Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025 | Dec 23, 2024 | 95% | +1% | -1% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 06:47AM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 06:47AM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |