Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
42
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 24 | 192 | 42 | 1738 |
| Comments | 2 | 14 | 38 | 29 | 147 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 17 | 39 | 22 | 148 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
88%
(0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
84%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
3%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(+2%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2026
93%
(-2%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
increasing
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Mar 11, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-2%)
Yes
95%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting a bit more after reading comments
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-11%)
Yes
93%
(+11%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting down on the recent stock price developments. Comparing Nvidia to competitors for top spot, Apple and MS, it's likely that it won't be able to catch up in time. While Nvidia has strong potential, current market uncertainty likely also means people avoid volatility, as seen by gold etc. climbing.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Heavy swings go both ways.
Files