Paul_Rowan

The recent swings have shown my forecast to be too pessimistic, the swings could move Nvidia above Apple and MS, especially since currently Apple seems to be in a more vulnerable position as Trump's focus on China becomes more clear. There's roughly 200B between their market caps, which goes to show how big the volatility is.
I'm hedging with this forecast a bit to balance out my earlier adjustments.

Opening forecast, after reading teams' reasonings, reflecting also on current political climate. Leaving most factors given by others out from re-explaining.

I doubt a "groundbreaking ceremony" will be achieved in time frame, but there is potential for either beginning constructions, or conversion of facilities for PLAs use.

I see many reasons for China to establish more concrete bases in Africa from a logistical perspective. They're investing in the region to have better global access, circumvent the middle east concerns, and avoid being boxed in by India, Japan etc. With the current instability of US, Russia, Middle east, more eyes may turn towards Africa.

However, what probably discourages more bold moves by China is that many African countries are currently experiencing, or are at a risk of political conflicts, civil war, etc. Which means that China may face pressures and friction in the region which they do not wish to be part of with their military.

Thus I'm starting lower than crowd.

Moving Ethiopia up, after reading that I may have been too optimistic about their situation. Nothing new per se to add, and I think the US tariff situation wasn't heavily directed at Ethiopia.