SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 
31st
Accuracy Rank

Paul_Rowan

About:

Show more
View All Badges »
Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 02, 2024 07:37PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 02, 2024 07:37PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 2, 2024 to Mar 2, 2025 Oct 2, 2024 0%
No 100% Sep 2, 2024 to Mar 2, 2025 Oct 2, 2024 100%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 11, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 11, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 24% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% 54% 22%
More than or equal to 28% 46% 77%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 11, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 11, 2024 to Mar 11, 2025 Dec 11, 2024 0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 11, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 11%
No 80% 89%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 11, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 11, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 2%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 3%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 11, 2024 06:53PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 97% 96%
No 3% 4%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 11, 2024 06:53PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 11, 2024 to Mar 11, 2025 Oct 11, 2024 0%
No 100% Sep 11, 2024 to Mar 11, 2025 Oct 11, 2024 100%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel