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Paul_Rowan
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Seasons
2024 Season
2020 Season
2025 Season
2021 Season
2023 Season
2022 Season
Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
U.S.-China
Africa
Biotechnology and Biomedical Capabilities
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
East Asia Security
Economic Debt
Future Bowl
Government Investment
Iran Nuclear Program
Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
0.030068
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
0.000492
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
-0.00125
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
-0.000509
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
-0.000624
Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024)
-0.0002
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
-0.000036
Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)
-0.00005
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
-0.02953
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
-0.013314
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
-0.148739
May 1, 2024 04:01AM
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
-0.000642
May 1, 2024 04:01AM
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
-0.010996
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)
-0.010278
Apr 6, 2024 04:00PM
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024)
-0.000242
Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM
Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
-0.000025
Apr 1, 2024 04:00PM
What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?
-0.017747
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM
Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?
-0.00142
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)
0.0
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM
What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?
-0.006666
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