37th
Accuracy Rank

Paul_Rowan

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.108699
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) -0.00033
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? -0.001913
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.003236
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? 0.081837
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.0
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? 0.001139
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? -0.005855
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? -0.001318
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035? -0.014529
Feb 15, 2023 01:01PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Mar 2023 -0.001758
Feb 03, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023? -0.001648
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? -0.000163
Jan 15, 2023 02:00PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Feb 2023 0.007945
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023) 0.0
Dec 15, 2022 01:02PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jan 2023 0.008221
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