Israel has been steadily bombing and precision attacking Hezbollah for the past month. The bigger question is when Hezbollah will counterattack. At the point they do, Israel will most likely declare an official war.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-to-
know-about-the-israel-hezbollah-conflict
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-obstacles-standing-in-the-way-of-an-israel-hezbollah-cease-fire
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2024 02:10AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
(+79%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
20%
(-79%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Significant pressure from United States and allies
"The United States and its allies, including Gulf Arab countries, have tried to offer a way out, proposing an immediate 21-day cease-fire to “provide space for diplomacy.”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-obstacles-standing-in-the-way-of-an-israel-hezbollah-cease-fire
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New Comment
This is an important question.
I agree that it requires multiple answer options.
Misinformation is currently considered one of the greatest short-term global risks. We need more questions about it since AI is obviously exponentially increasing it.
I agree that it requires multiple answer options.
Misinformation is currently considered one of the greatest short-term global risks. We need more questions about it since AI is obviously exponentially increasing it.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 22, 2024 05:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-49%)
Yes
Mar 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
99%
(+49%)
No
Mar 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
I misread the question. I thought it was asking for probability until OCTOBER 2024, not April. It is highly unlikely Israel will declare war on anyone else in the immediate future. They have insufficient funding and a lack of international support and cannot afford a two-front war without others.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 22, 2024 05:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Mar 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
50%
No
Mar 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
Hezbollah is a significant threat. However, Israel has been in a prolonged conflict with Hamas since October 2023. NATO and the U.S. funding has largely been withdrawn, and substantial public outcry for a ceasefire exists. They are unlikely to have the funds or equipment for more than a short set of skirmishes.
However, if Hezbollah or other factions continue attacks against larger countries, it is possible increased funding may be directed to stabilizing the region.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
He has been re-elected, is not showing significant signs of illness, and his public approval ratings (as shown) have only increased.
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Why might you be wrong?
There is always a possibility.
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The fighting has not only continued but intensified. At this point, it is more likely other nations will become involved and it be a regional conflict.