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I misread the question. I thought it was asking for probability until OCTOBER 2024, not April. It is highly unlikely Israel will declare war on anyone else in the immediate future. They have insufficient funding and a lack of international support and cannot afford a two-front war without others.
Hezbollah is a significant threat. However, Israel has been in a prolonged conflict with Hamas since October 2023. NATO and the U.S. funding has largely been withdrawn, and substantial public outcry for a ceasefire exists. They are unlikely to have the funds or equipment for more than a short set of skirmishes.
However, if Hezbollah or other factions continue attacks against larger countries, it is possible increased funding may be directed to stabilizing the region.
He has been re-elected, is not showing significant signs of illness, and his public approval ratings (as shown) have only increased.
There is always a possibility.
Increasing pressure from NATO and the U.S. for a ceasefire.
Lack of funding.
Bad press on the continued bombings in Gaza.
Israel may continue to find additional Hamas cells.
Iran may instigate further terrorist actions in the region or involve other countries.
Why do you think you're right?
Israel has been steadily bombing and precision attacking Hezbollah for the past month. The bigger question is when Hezbollah will counterattack. At the point they do, Israel will most likely declare an official war.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-to-
know-about-the-israel-hezbollah-conflict
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-obstacles-standing-in-the-way-of-an-israel-hezbollah-cease-fire
Why might you be wrong?
Significant pressure from United States and allies
"The United States and its allies, including Gulf Arab countries, have tried to offer a way out, proposing an immediate 21-day cease-fire to “provide space for diplomacy.”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/the-obstacles-standing-in-the-way-of-an-israel-hezbollah-cease-fire