Confirmed previous forecast
0.184881
Relative Brier Score
617
Forecasts
79
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 23 | 76 | 628 | 617 | 1702 |
| Comments | 6 | 16 | 318 | 308 | 632 |
| Questions Forecasted | 20 | 21 | 38 | 37 | 74 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 6 | 85 | 79 | 369 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
91%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
1%
(0%)
30 days
1%
(0%)
31-60 days
1%
(0%)
61-90 days
6%
(0%)
91 days or more
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2027
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Russia suspected of hacking European ferry with ‘remote control’.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/17/russia-hacking-european-ferry-remote-control-software/
no attribution and unlikely by French signals Intel..maybe help from 5 eyes but the GRU or SVR are not going to cross this kinetic line.
Putin goals
A expansion of Russian territory agriculture capacity and population ..
by any means necessary
against Ukraine continued bombardment of key infrastructure..Korean War sappers in essence human waves against 600km manning 1000 Line of contact.
NATO
dividing NATO
to get the US out of NATO by dividing US and rest of NATO, ie maneuvered Trump. into a position where he mediates between the EU and Russia and says that in National Security Strategy. Pskov agreed with this strategy on Putin behalf
New US security strategy aligns with Russia's vision, Moscow says - BBC News https://share.google/iqc9JvGOuo0c4amnL
dividing nato countries against themselves covert and overt support for Reform UK, National Rally, AFD, in Bulgaria and actually caused cancelling Rumania first round.
Constant disinformation falsehood on his themes, and favored candidate
and constant maybe 5000 attacks on EU infrastructure a day and UK and US
Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia – POLITICO https://share.google/J4NR703kF5VHfD7Te
From past experience since 2015, only against utilities and internet shut down in Estonia 2008 the first DNS attack and 2015 most of Kiev infrastructure.
They have yet to cross this redline but Putin is constantly pushing on all levers and as the attack above indicates this is very very close to the criteria here
It's a red line
If it's crosed EU will retaliate with offense cyber attacks and may do anyway for repeated drone flyovers
So no need now unless it's time for war with NATO by invasion of Balts.
and it's almost impossible to attribute to the GRU or SVR as opposed to Ukrainian traitors hired by them ..all acts of sabotage and drones impossible to ascertain with 99 reliability..
Russian hybrid threats: Council sanctions twelve individuals and two entities over information manipulation and cyber attacks - Consilium https://share.google/CquBVvIfcEjoqeTAN
case of attribution by EU to GRU Kaliningrad
so no but it's always possible as a freak accident but no such accident since beginning of war.
Why might you be wrong?