| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 68 | 777 | 711 | 996 |
| Comments | 2 | 18 | 153 | 139 | 284 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 23 | 40 | 37 | 52 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 16 | 181 | 160 | 245 |
| Definitions | |||||
I think it goes up from 67 in 2024.
Russian nuclear threats
Scholz phone call w lame duck status
Ukraine and NATO will be election issue with economy. There is a dichotomy between AFD and CDU CSU SPD and Greens and it makes the mainstream parties coalition partners maybe of necessity when you add the AFD the Wegman party and the Left party.
Russia and Ukraine and economy the big issues.
An internet cable was cut by a Chinese ship which Danes apprehended with Russian captain.
Ukraine Russia cease fire could reduce fear index. More likely 3d quarter. Removal of EU sanctions and Nord Stream 1 reopening could bring the cheer back go German manufacturing.
Its the kinetic effect property damage or death that is the hallmark of a taboo cyber attack.
And there must be attribution to the Russian state like GRU or SVR or FSB
Read the gift article for an update on history and ongoing regulatory efforts to harden our many soft targets
Recent reports conclude its going up.
According to the group Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, reported fatalities across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger reached a record-high 7,620 in the first half of this year — an increase of 9 percent compared with the same period in 2023 and a 37 percent increase over the same period in 2022. The Islamic State is controlling territory and expanding its area of operations.
A gift article for you summarizes Sahel post coup.
Still think more likely than not. Key focus Mozambique and Cameroon and rest of Sahel. See https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/nov/21/world-conflict-zones-increased-by-two-thirds-past-three-years-report-ukraine-myanmar-middle-east-africa?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Recent ACLED highlights point in this direction. DRC and Uganda are overdue. In Mozambique Frelimo the ruling party just won a disputed election is killing political opponents.
True intra country disputes like Anglophone v. Francophone in Cameroon may not indicate coups just continued military dictatorships but these are inherently coup prone.
Israel and Iran Seemed on the Brink of a Bigger War. What’s Holding Them Back? https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/world/middleeast/israel-iran-brink-bigger-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.bk4.idKk.8-deGKCX9lV5
We are really trying to figure out what's happening with Iranian decision making.
Are they acting like they are deterred or like they require discipline and training.
Let's say they make no more attacks against Israel, but Netanyahu launches a pre emptive strike against Iran nuclear facilities and succeeds.
Let's say they make more attacks against Israel and Israel retaliates?
The only hopeful sign I have observed is that former Speaker of Majlis and member of Guardianship Council traveled to Beirut and ordered Hezbollah to evacuate Lebanon south of the Litani.
Hochstein is working on that but the devil is in the details who is to police this area to keep Hezbollah out. UNIFIL abject failure after 2006.
Assuming that Netanyahu wanted peace he would jump on this. They are running out of targets in Lebanon a and have only advanced 3 km.
The election of Trump coupled with the defeat of a motion in Senate to stop arms deliveries to Israel, leaves Netanyahu free to do as he wishes.
The track record of Netanyahu is that he will attack and places no value in any negotiations which involve IDF withdrawal from West Bank and Gaza.
Netanyahu sees value in withdraw of troops and cease-fire in Lebanon
It's too late to happen this year. Likely early 2025
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-faces-fresh-international-pressure-over-nuclear-activities-3166b63c?st=qBHWuA