Plataea479

According to the group Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, reported fatalities across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger reached a record-high 7,620 in the first half of this year — an increase of 9 percent compared with the same period in 2023 and a 37 percent increase over the same period in 2022. The Islamic State is controlling territory and expanding its area of operations.

See https://wapo.st/3CGVnqH

A gift article for you summarizes Sahel post coup.

Still think more likely than not. Key focus Mozambique and Cameroon and rest of Sahel. See https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/nov/21/world-conflict-zones-increased-by-two-thirds-past-three-years-report-ukraine-myanmar-middle-east-africa?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Recent ACLED highlights point in this direction. DRC and Uganda are overdue. In Mozambique Frelimo the ruling party just won a disputed election is killing political opponents.

True intra country disputes like Anglophone v. Francophone in Cameroon may not indicate coups just continued military dictatorships but these are inherently coup prone.

Israel and Iran Seemed on the Brink of a Bigger War. What’s Holding Them Back? https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/world/middleeast/israel-iran-brink-bigger-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.bk4.idKk.8-deGKCX9lV5

We are really trying to figure out what's happening with Iranian decision making.

Are they acting like they are deterred or like they require discipline and training.

Let's say they make no more attacks against Israel, but Netanyahu launches a pre emptive strike against Iran nuclear facilities and succeeds.

Let's say they make more attacks against Israel and Israel retaliates?

The only hopeful sign I have observed is that former Speaker of Majlis and member of Guardianship Council traveled to Beirut and ordered Hezbollah to evacuate Lebanon south of the Litani.

Hochstein is working on that but the devil is in the details who is to police this area to keep Hezbollah out. UNIFIL abject failure after 2006.

Assuming that Netanyahu wanted peace he would jump on this. They are running out of targets in Lebanon a and have only advanced 3 km.

The election of Trump coupled with the defeat of a motion in Senate to stop arms deliveries to Israel, leaves Netanyahu free to do as he wishes.

The track record of Netanyahu is that he will attack  and places no value in any negotiations which involve IDF withdrawal from West Bank and Gaza. 

Netanyahu claims the last IAF assault destroyed nuclear components in Iran.

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-829683

Hes walking on eggshells as his 10000 crack DPRK troops confront a Ukrainian meat grinder. 

What Kim III is looking for is miniaturization technology for nuclear warhead on intercontinental ballistics missiles.

Russia and Iran are the most likely source of these technologies and components. But neither Russia and China favor nuclear proliferation.

So at this stage of development of program both Iran and DPRK behind India and Pakistan.

I think its generally accepted that Xi Jin Ping is afraid of this rogue regime on its borders.

So Kim III has sent DPRK troops to fight in a European war.

I believe that the PRC and Ru collaborate on defense and don't send out nuclear components and infrastructure to regional powers because I believe PRC and US share  one vital common interest. Non proliferation. Both countries and Russia are signatories to the 1970 treaty.

I think DPRK is so dependent on PRC that DPRK will sing whatever lines Beijing writes.

PRC does not want Japan or ROK to have nuclear weapons. And in a sense the PRC would rather deal with the 7nth fleet and US and wants US in ROK and Japan. Neither of  these countries have an independent deterent and because of treaty obligations.

But I think all along we have overestimated DPRK ability to launch nuclear icbms. Clearly Russia and China are not rushing to give DPRK or Iran deliverable nuclear weapons.

The Mideast and Ukraine and Sudan are far more critical conflicts for humanity. The US is a world power with a substantial air and naval assets which dominate every ocean. 

It would really be a mistake to think we could ignore Europe and Russia and focus on China.

https://wapo.st/48QDsd0 a gift link for you .

And “while Trump’s victory has given some pause to both sides regarding their next move, Israel and Iran will likely try to establish an advantage on the ground before his presidency,” three Middle East experts at the European Council on Foreign Relations wrote on Wednesday. “In doing so, they risk overreaching and plunging the region further into war.”

Khamenei, who was close to Soleimani, the slain Iranian general, also remains “scarred” by his death, said Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer on Iranian politics at Israel’s Reichman University.

That enmity is coloring the supreme leader’s approach to Trump, he said. Khamenei is “struggling between two different extremes, on the one hand wanting to settle scores with Trump by taking a very, very aggressive policy towards him,” Javedanfar said. “But on the other hand, he’s very scared also.

People who are scared and pressured especially an 86 year old Mullah with a gun pointed at him and regime.He  knows reimposition of US sanctions blocks 80 percent of Iranian hydrocarbons to China and India although some  could still leak through

Iran enters a depression the local currency plummets like Weimar Deutsch Marks in 1929. There  are domestic  opposition demonstrations in the middle of a war and regime falls or Institutes mass killing of political prisoners.

Or

They go for nuclear weapons US or Mossad collect verifiable evidence and bombs away.

Khamenei has no good  choices and the decision may in fact be totally out of his control.

Given Trumps in your face appointments of Tulsi Gabbard, Matt Gates and RFK Jr.

For 3.75 years  of his first term Mattis and Esper. Now Pox and Friends comes to Pentagon. And they will be all recess appointments which can last for 2 years and then each can be acting until end of his term.

Trump has deconstructed or destroyed the Deep State by paralyzing thd national security system by making DOJ And DOD and HHS and ODNI impossible to run much less coordinate 27 different intel agencies no more. Just CIA and DOD and NSC staffed with obedient minions.

The federal government can't run like this at least it's not been attempted since Nixon

Anything and everything can happen. Things can get better or worse suddenly economically and geopolitically.