Plataea479

As the AI summary states this is a complex geopolitical question.

@cmeinel states the arguments for and against well as does @Captbullett and @LogicCurve 

I'd say that after the recent top to bottom demolition of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran has an incentive to go nuclear as soon as possible.

Iran is surrounded by US forces and S 300 air defenses were easily surmounted by IAF in April. Iran now has lost its insurance policy of deterrence of Israel by Hezbollah, 

Russian PM Mishustin is due in Tehran presently. IDF may strike before Russia deploys S 400 to Iran. 

Netanyahu speech at UN stated Israel would never allow Iran to become a nuclear power. Biden is a lame duck, Trump is looming, Russia is otherwise occupied in Ukraine. PRC too far away to help. And if Harris wins, after January 21, 2025, the US may well be less supportive of Israel.

I am going to remain out on somewhat of a limb. But at this point,  if IDF gets more 2000lb and 5000lb busters from US, that would be tacit support for such an operation by US. Israel may not even need resupply of these items.

No one in the Sunni world no one in Washington or NATO is likely to complain if IDF takes out any vestige of Iranian nuclear infrastructure  in the next 6 months. All were in tacit agreement with the termination of Nasrallah.

Alot depends on the success of IDF in a limited operation south of Litani. If that proceeds according to plan, IDF demonstrated intelligence and tactical mastery of Hezbollah.

I assume that IDF and Mossad have spent many years war gaming an attack on Iran nuclear infrastructure in all dimensions.

I would take Netanyahu at his word. Iran is next.

As noted in http://www.nytimes.com 

"Even Iran itself, the founder of the axis, has so far taken no clear action to save Hezbollah or join the fight. The country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly last week that his government wanted to defuse tensions and get along with the West. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggested that Hezbollah had to chart its own way forward.

“All of the forces in the resistance stand by Hezbollah,” Mr. Khamenei said. “It will be Hezbollah, at the helm of the resistance forces, that will determine the fate of the region.”

Tehran appears to be torn between a desire to retaliate against Israel and fear that doing so might lead Israel to attack Iran directly.

“They are in a strategic bind, because if they do nothing it will further weaken them and weaken their credibility and their deterrence,” said Kawa Hassan, a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center’s Middle East and North Africa Program. But if the Iranians respond, he said, that would risk provoking Israel at a time when it appears “really ready to go after them.”

They are really ready. Any attempt by Iran to ramp up enrichment or deploy a S 400 system, could well trigger such an IDF attack immediately.

This places Iran in a strategic quandary with no cost free options bereft of the deterrence of Hezbollah on IDF actions.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/world/middleeast/iran-axis-of-resistance.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

Small-scale operations or "border movements" into Lebanon to take out Hezbollah positions right on the border have begun or are about to, according to two U.S. officials.

Israel does not yet appear to have fully decided whether to launch a ground operation but is prepared for one, the officials said. If a ground operation happens, its scope will likely be limited, sources said. The key is fulfilling the promise to Israelis that the tens of thousands displaced from northern Israel will be able to go home. To do that, decapitating Hezbollah is not enough, the officials said.

ABC news 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas-hezbollah-war/?id=113917948

Jerusalem Post reports 

While no invasion decision is necessarily imminent, if the IDF invades, there is pressure to start the invasion within weeks or less in order to try to wrap up any serious fighting in the ground before the harsh mountainous Lebanese winter, especially before December.

www.jpost.com 

Lebanon’s army has withdrawn from positions along its southern border with Israel ahead of an “imminent” ground invasion.

Local residents and a security source told Reuters that Lebanese troops had moved from “several positions” along the frontier.

It came as Israel declared a closed military zone in parts of its northern border with Lebanon as US officials claimed a “limited” ground invasion could be launched within hours.

“The areas of Metula, Misgav Am, and Kfar Giladi in northern Israel have been declared a closed military zone. Entry to this area is prohibited,” the military said in a statement on Monday.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Sounds like Israel advances destroying Hezbollah infrastructure South of Litani River then withdraws and let's Lebanon Army take back control. A prepackaged peace for a prepackaged war. It sounds like Israel will withdraw swiftly as soon as they find an effective force to occupy Southern Lebanon

Lets pray that this leads to a real peace between Lebanon and Israel. There never has been a peace treaty between the 2 countries.

US envoy Hochstein led the 2 countries to an agreement splitting East Mediterranean natural gas, let's hope this horrible war results in one positive outcome. Lebanon can be restored as a sovereign country with a real government not challenged by a terrorist entity within its own border.

Enshallah. The Lebanese people deserve a real country with a real government and a real economy.  The Lebanese state was a hostage of Hafez Assad after 1979 and Hezbollah with Iran  since 2006.

A free Lebanese  state is now foreseeable. A Syria free from Iran Putin and Assad II,who committed a real genocide in Aleppo, becomes a possibility. 

Genocide in Gaza? How about genocide in Syria and Sudan, and Ukraine at Mariupol. The mass media and popular culture sure have a selective memory.

Free Palestine? A free Lebanon and a free Syria would be a great start. You don't hear the UAE complaining much about IDF attacks on Houthis or Gaza or Hezbollah when they are aiding  Hemetti RSF in Darfur.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israeli-special-forces-launch-raids-into-lebanon-ahead-of-possible-ground-incursion-bf2fe94d?st=UGHvBq

Israel’s ground operation in southern Lebanon will likely expand in the coming days, a source familiar with the matter told The Telegraph, adding that Hezbollah is weak and confused, making the timing right for Israel to launch the attack. 

But as Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure from the US not to launch a major invasion, the ground incursions will likely be smaller, and more targeted so as not to drag the entire region in a full scale war. The Israeli air force has already crippled large parts of Hezbollah, including assassinating its entire senior leadership. 

To remove Hezbollah entirely from southern Lebanon will however demand ground troops. Tanks could also soon roll over the border to support the troops carrying out raids against Hezbollah targets, while the air force is already preparing the ground for the troops by launching major airstrikes against weapon depots and other military installations. 

www.telegraph.co.uk