I am readjusting based on uncertainty surrounding the US President election
-0.897828
Relative Brier Score
241
Forecasts
81
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 47 | 730 | 662 | 947 |
| Comments | 2 | 17 | 141 | 124 | 269 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 22 | 39 | 36 | 51 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 12 | 169 | 147 | 232 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
51%
(-19%)
Yes
Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025
49%
(+19%)
No
Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
66%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025
34%
(0%)
No
Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Oct 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-3%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
98%
(+3%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
Focus on ballistic and miniaturization not testing. I will check the telemetry on today's ICBM launch
I know that 1 that flew over Japan incinerated just after re entry several years ago. When I see one warhead or dummy actually reenter and incinerate just above landfall, I will be concerned.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
49%
(-13%)
Yes
51%
(+13%)
No
When they go out the go out incrementally. On the string of pearls they go out. Sihanoukville, Gwadar, Djibouti etc. Next Mozambique maybe near Diego Garcia.
I agree with the crowd. China will not dilute its naval resources away from South China Sea.
They most fear Democracy and free enterprise and Taiwan independence.
These are the 3 no items
China is too smart to invade Taiwan and start building bases in the South Atlantic. Next would come a 600 US Navy and quick.
So I will put this down to 49. It's coming. Most Likely Maputo or Zanzibar but probably not soon.
They will Bide their time, for now.
Files
There are 30 days left and no active negotiations. I am not pleased at all by the outcome here.