3rd
Accuracy Rank

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

-0.897828

Relative Brier Score

241

Forecasts

81

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 12 67 776 710 995
Comments 4 18 155 139 284
Questions Forecasted 7 23 40 37 52
Upvotes on Comments By This User 4 14 180 158 243
 Definitions
New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
1% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
22% (-11%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
77% (+11%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?

I think it goes up from 67 in 2024.

Russian nuclear threats

Scholz phone call w lame duck status 

Ukraine and NATO will be election issue with economy. There is a dichotomy between AFD  and CDU CSU SPD and Greens and it makes the mainstream parties coalition partners maybe of necessity when you add the AFD the Wegman party and the Left party.

Russia and Ukraine and economy the big issues.

An internet cable was cut by a Chinese ship which Danes apprehended with Russian captain.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Ukraine Russia cease fire could reduce fear index. More likely 3d quarter.  Removal of EU sanctions and Nord Stream 1 reopening could bring the cheer back go German manufacturing.

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New Prediction

Its the kinetic effect property damage or death that is the hallmark of a taboo cyber attack. 

And there must be attribution to the Russian state like GRU or SVR or FSB 

Read the gift article for an update on history and ongoing regulatory efforts to harden our many soft targets

https://wapo.st/494t3uj



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New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 30th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0% (-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100% (+1%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

Recent reports conclude its going up.

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New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
67% (+1%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
33% (-1%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025

According to the group Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, reported fatalities across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger reached a record-high 7,620 in the first half of this year — an increase of 9 percent compared with the same period in 2023 and a 37 percent increase over the same period in 2022. The Islamic State is controlling territory and expanding its area of operations.

See https://wapo.st/3CGVnqH

A gift article for you summarizes Sahel post coup.


Files
New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
66% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
34% (0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025

Still think more likely than not. Key focus Mozambique and Cameroon and rest of Sahel. See https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/nov/21/world-conflict-zones-increased-by-two-thirds-past-three-years-report-ukraine-myanmar-middle-east-africa?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Recent ACLED highlights point in this direction. DRC and Uganda are overdue. In Mozambique Frelimo the ruling party just won a disputed election is killing political opponents.

True intra country disputes like Anglophone v. Francophone in Cameroon may not indicate coups just continued military dictatorships but these are inherently coup prone.




Files
New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 42nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65% (-5%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025
35% (+5%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Israel and Iran Seemed on the Brink of a Bigger War. What’s Holding Them Back? https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/world/middleeast/israel-iran-brink-bigger-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.bk4.idKk.8-deGKCX9lV5

We are really trying to figure out what's happening with Iranian decision making.

Are they acting like they are deterred or like they require discipline and training.

Let's say they make no more attacks against Israel, but Netanyahu launches a pre emptive strike against Iran nuclear facilities and succeeds.

Let's say they make more attacks against Israel and Israel retaliates?

The only hopeful sign I have observed is that former Speaker of Majlis and member of Guardianship Council traveled to Beirut and ordered Hezbollah to evacuate Lebanon south of the Litani.

Hochstein is working on that but the devil is in the details who is to police this area to keep Hezbollah out. UNIFIL abject failure after 2006.

Assuming that Netanyahu wanted peace he would jump on this. They are running out of targets in Lebanon a and have only advanced 3 km.

The election of Trump coupled with the defeat of a motion in Senate to stop arms deliveries to Israel, leaves Netanyahu free to do as he wishes.

The track record of Netanyahu is that he will attack  and places no value in any negotiations which involve IDF withdrawal from West Bank and Gaza. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Netanyahu sees value in withdraw of troops and cease-fire in Lebanon 

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 41st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70% (+10%)
Yes
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025
30% (-10%)
No
Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025

Netanyahu claims the last IAF assault destroyed nuclear components in Iran.

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-829683

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