RAND Forecasting Initiative

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 11:02AM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	28%	Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	24%	+4%	+0%
No	72%	Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	76%	-4%	+0%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	38%	+2%	+0%
No	60%	62%	-2%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:14PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Feb 19, 2025	4%	+11%	+0%
No	85%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Feb 19, 2025	96%	-11%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:14PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	-1%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:37PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	22%	37%	-15%	+11%
No	78%	63%	+15%	-11%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	12%	+6%	-1%
No	82%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	88%	-6%	+1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 07:40AM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	34%	+31%	+1%
No	35%	66%	-31%	-1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 11:09AM UTC
(7 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	3%	7%	-4%	+0%
Armenia	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Georgia	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	2%	2%	+0%	+0%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(7 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	2%	1%	+1%	0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	12%	8%	+5%	+0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	28%	27%	+1%	+0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	28%	37%	-9%	+0%
More than or equal to 90	30%	27%	+3%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(7 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2026	Feb 22, 2025	12%	-2%	+0%
No	90%	Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2026	Feb 22, 2025	88%	+2%	+0%

Rene

Rene Scheffers

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