RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(6 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	5%	1%	+4%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	10%	13%	-3%	-1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	50%	51%	-1%	+1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	30%	34%	-4%	+0%
More than or equal to 80	5%	2%	+3%	+0%

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(6 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	5%	1%	+4%	0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	25%	19%	+6%	+0%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	58%	72%	-14%	0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	10%	8%	+2%	0%
More than or equal to 40%	2%	0%	+2%	0%

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(6 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	0%

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(6 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	0%
Odesa	0%	2%	-2%	0%

Rene