26th
Accuracy Rank

Rene

Rene Scheffers
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Living in The Netherlands

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2025 Season Stats

-0.121426

Relative Brier Score
13835005101520253035
Questions Forecasted
1110-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1
Scored Questions

304

Forecasts

38

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreDecJanFebMarSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 25 97 927 304 927
Comments 6 32 194 117 194
Questions Forecasted 19 24 43 35 43
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 8 197 38 197
 Definitions
New Prediction
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Rene made their 25th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Less than or equal to 59
8% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
40% (0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
38% (0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
12% (0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Rene made their 36th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
12% (0%)
Togo
50% (0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Rene made their 30th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
15% (0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
65% (0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
18% (0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Rene made their 28th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
5% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
28% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
45% (0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
20% (0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Rene made their 36th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Rene made their 24th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Rene made their 26th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Mar 16, 2025 to Sep 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Rene made their 36th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Estonia
2% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
 
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