Rene

Nigeria looks pretty safe: "Nigeria is finally getting a favorable nod from investors, pushing stocks higher and bond yields lower as painful reforms restore confidence.

Nigeria’s sovereign risk spread has fallen to the lowest level since January 2020, erasing the premium accumulated during the pandemic and subsequent strain on its economy. Its NGX All Share index is up 11% since Dec. 2, triple the rise of the MSCI gauge for developing-world equities."

(bloomberg artice from January): https://archive.ph/vBdBD#selection-1687.0-1702.0

I still don't understand Ethiopia's situation. As far as I knwo, the country is in default since December 2023 (before this question opened) and is still renegotiating the debt: https://addisinsight.net/2025/02/17/ethiopias-debt-crisis-why-investors-and-the-imf-are-clashing/

I think the only real threat to him is death—the regime is too firmly in control.

Small adjustment because of latest numbers.

I’m also raising my forecast because of the agreement between Russia and Equatorial Guinea that @belikewater posted about. But I haven’t found clear confirmation or a definite plan to send more troops. And the ones sent there last November weren’t enough to settle this question.

Russia might also be interested in a naval base at Malabo in Equatorial Guinea:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-eyes-west-african-ports-amid-naval-base-ambitions/ar-AA1AhrJw

No change. I still think Bolivia is the most likely candidate—it just seems like a matter of time.

"Bolivia’s state energy company, YPFB, has turned to cryptocurrency as a method of payment for energy imports, according to a company spokesperson and a government official. This decision comes as the landlocked South American nation grapples with a severe shortage of dollars and fuel.

The use of digital currency is a strategic move for the Bolivian firm, offering a solution to the current financial crunch. The specific type of cryptocurrency to be used by YPFB has not been disclosed. The company spokesperson and the government official provided this information on Wednesday, but did not offer further details on the timeline or implementation process of this new payment system."

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/bolivias-ypfb-to-use-cryptocurrency-for-energy-imports-amid-dollar-shortage-93CH-3923788

Epcoro has already procured a ton of gold this year from small-scale Bolivian producers. This amount contrasts with the total of 2.4 tons procured last year, according to the firm’s Chief Executive Officer, Pablo Cesar Perez.