26th
Accuracy Rank

Rene

Rene Scheffers
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-0.121426

Relative Brier Score
13635005101520253035
Questions Forecasted
1110-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1
Scored Questions

293

Forecasts

38

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreDecJanFebMarSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 24 87 916 293 916
Comments 14 32 194 117 194
Questions Forecasted 24 24 43 35 43
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 8 197 38 197
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Nigeria looks pretty safe: "Nigeria is finally getting a favorable nod from investors, pushing stocks higher and bond yields lower as painful reforms restore confidence.

Nigeria’s sovereign risk spread has fallen to the lowest level since January 2020, erasing the premium accumulated during the pandemic and subsequent strain on its economy. Its NGX All Share index is up 11% since Dec. 2, triple the rise of the MSCI gauge for developing-world equities."

(bloomberg artice from January): https://archive.ph/vBdBD#selection-1687.0-1702.0


I still don't understand Ethiopia's situation. As far as I knwo, the country is in default since December 2023 (before this question opened) and is still renegotiating the debt: https://addisinsight.net/2025/02/17/ethiopias-debt-crisis-why-investors-and-the-imf-are-clashing/

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Perhaps I should be at 100% for Ethiopia

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Rene
made their 36th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
85% (0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

I think the only real threat to him is death—the regime is too firmly in control.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

There’s a lot of underlying dissatisfaction with the regime. It seems tightly contained for now, but maybe one day it will break through.

Files
New Prediction
Rene
made their 24th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Less than or equal to 59
8% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
40% (0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
38% (+3%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
12% (-3%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?

Small adjustment because of latest numbers.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
Rene
made their 35th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
12% (0%)
Togo
50% (+25%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?

I’m also raising my forecast because of the agreement between Russia and Equatorial Guinea that @belikewater posted about. But I haven’t found clear confirmation or a definite plan to send more troops. And the ones sent there last November weren’t enough to settle this question.

Russia might also be interested in a naval base at Malabo in Equatorial Guinea:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-eyes-west-african-ports-amid-naval-base-ambitions/ar-AA1AhrJw

Files
Why might you be wrong?

This might not amount to much, especially if Russia struggles to recruit enough people.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

No change. I still think Bolivia is the most likely candidate—it just seems like a matter of time.

"Bolivia’s state energy company, YPFB, has turned to cryptocurrency as a method of payment for energy imports, according to a company spokesperson and a government official. This decision comes as the landlocked South American nation grapples with a severe shortage of dollars and fuel.

The use of digital currency is a strategic move for the Bolivian firm, offering a solution to the current financial crunch. The specific type of cryptocurrency to be used by YPFB has not been disclosed. The company spokesperson and the government official provided this information on Wednesday, but did not offer further details on the timeline or implementation process of this new payment system."

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/bolivias-ypfb-to-use-cryptocurrency-for-energy-imports-amid-dollar-shortage-93CH-3923788



Epcoro has already procured a ton of gold this year from small-scale Bolivian producers. This amount contrasts with the total of 2.4 tons procured last year, according to the firm’s Chief Executive Officer, Pablo Cesar Perez.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Rene
made their 29th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45% (0%)
Yes
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
55% (0%)
No
Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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