RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 10:22AM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	-1%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 10:23AM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 10:24AM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	8%	12%	-4%	-1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	90%	85%	+5%	+1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 10:25AM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	10%	-2%	+0%
No	92%	90%	+2%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
38 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 10:29AM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	10%	-5%	-1%
No	95%	90%	+5%	+1%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 12, 2025 08:58AM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 12, 2025 12:53PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	6%	-1%	+2%
No	95%	94%	+1%	-2%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 12, 2025 12:53PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025	Apr 12, 2025 12:53PM	40%	+5%	+1%
No	55%	Mar 12, 2025 to Sep 12, 2025	Apr 12, 2025 12:53PM	60%	-5%	-1%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 12, 2025 12:58PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	2%	9%	-7%	+0%
Bolivia	8%	12%	-4%	+0%
Ecuador	4%	9%	-5%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
36 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 12, 2025 01:25PM
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026	Jun 12, 2025 01:25PM	9%	+6%	+0%
No	85%	Mar 12, 2025 to Mar 12, 2026	Jun 12, 2025 01:25PM	91%	-6%	+0%

Rene

Rene Scheffers

About:

Participation in currently active questions

Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season