Confirmed previous forecast
-0.009179
Relative Brier Score
586
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 21 | 60 | 638 | 586 | 640 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
Questions Forecasted | 21 | 30 | 48 | 42 | 49 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 33 | 15 | 34 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
14%
(0%)
Yes
86%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
47%
(0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
(-14%)
Yes
76%
(+14%)
No
it is less likely looking at current situation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
47%
(0%)
Yes
53%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
73%
(+47%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025
27%
(-47%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025
Based on @Pramila research, the recent statement by the Israeli minister suggests that the possibility of war is imminent.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
(0%)
Yes
54%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
(0%)
Togo
41%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
86%
(+62%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
14%
(-62%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Based on @Pramila 's research, in this comment https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141122 the recent statement by the Israeli minister suggests that the possibility of war is imminent.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files