slight adjustment
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 41 | 91 | 736 | 707 | 761 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 41 | 41 | 60 | 55 | 62 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 37 | 21 | 40 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
21%
(-4%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
79%
(+4%)
No
Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-4%)
Less than or equal to 59
15%
(-4%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
28%
(-3%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
34%
(-1%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
20%
(+12%)
More than or equal to 90
Recent reports indicate a surge in such campaigns, particularly as Russia targets Germany due to its pivotal role in European politics, especially regarding Ukraine. Disinformation efforts have increasingly utilized fake social media accounts and bots, flooding platforms like Twitter with misleading narratives aimed at dividing public opinion and weakening support for Ukraine[1]
[1]https://cepa.org/article/germany-in-the-crosshairs-of-russias-information-war/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
26%
(0%)
Yes
74%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2026
94%
(0%)
No
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Angola
9%
(0%)
Kenya
32%
(-4%)
Ethiopia
4%
(0%)
Nigeria
slight adjustment
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16%
(-3%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
84%
(+3%)
No
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
less likely since the election of donald trump
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(+4%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
85%
(-4%)
No
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
increasing slightly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(0%)
Yes
84%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
31%
(+5%)
Yes
69%
(-5%)
No
keeping it little lower than before
Files
following @Pramila answer from https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/146582