Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025 | Feb 12, 2025 | 12% | -6% | +4% |
| No | 94% | Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025 | Feb 12, 2025 | 88% | +6% | -4% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 94% | 97% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 6% | 3% | +3% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:04PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:04PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32% | 37% | -5% | +6% |
| No | 68% | 63% | +5% | -6% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:04PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:04PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 21% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 76% | 79% | -3% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 26% | 24% | +2% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 35% | 40% | -5% | +5% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 57% | -4% | +1% |
| No | 47% | Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 43% | +4% | -1% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:05PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 39% | 36% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 61% | 64% | -3% | +1% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:06PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:06PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 17% | 19% | -2% | +0% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 73% | 72% | +1% | -1% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 9% | 8% | +1% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 5% | +4% | -2% |
| No | 91% | 95% | -4% | +2% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Nov 12, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025 | Feb 12, 2025 | 22% | +1% | +1% |
| No | 77% | Nov 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2025 | Feb 12, 2025 | 78% | -1% | -1% |