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Rishab-Bhattarai

Rishab Bhattarai
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2021 Season Stats

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Forecasts

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 21 60 638 586 640
Comments 0 0 7 5 7
Questions Forecasted 21 30 48 42 49
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 33 15 34
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Rishab-Bhattarai made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53% (0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
47% (0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

it is less likely looking at current situation 

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Rishab-Bhattarai made their 17th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
73% (+47%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025
27% (-47%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025

Based on @Pramila research, the recent statement by the Israeli minister suggests that the possibility of war is imminent.

Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Rishab-Bhattarai made their 29th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
90% (0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Rishab-Bhattarai made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
28% (0%)
Togo
41% (0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Rishab-Bhattarai made their 18th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
86% (+62%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
14% (-62%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025

Based on @Pramila 's  research, in this comment https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/141122 the recent statement by the Israeli minister suggests that the possibility of war is imminent.

Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Rishab-Bhattarai made their 23rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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