RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 02:19PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	31%	16%	+15%	-3%
Bolivia	21%	22%	-1%	-7%
Ecuador	26%	12%	+14%	-1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 02:59PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2026	Jan 22, 2025	12%	-1%	+3%
No	89%	Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2026	Jan 22, 2025	88%	+1%	-3%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 07:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	5%	+1%	-2%
No	94%	95%	-1%	+2%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 08:52PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	51%	38%	+13%	-4%
No	49%	62%	-13%	+4%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 09:12PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	38%	Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025	Nov 22, 2024	12%	+26%	-12%
No	62%	Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025	Nov 22, 2024	88%	-26%	+12%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	7%	+0%	-4%
No	93%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	93%	+0%	+4%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:45PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	4%	-3%	-2%
No	99%	Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	96%	+3%	+2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 06:46PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	22%	-22%	-9%
No	100%	Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025	Jan 28, 2025	78%	+22%	+9%

SOUZACaio

About: