RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.292678
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.032539
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.518469
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.005253
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.000926
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.01066
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.002533
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	0.001052

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