ShamirS21

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.016485
    Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) 0.005507
    Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024) 0.04032
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.007773
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.014515
    Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) 0.028006
    Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024) 0.001976
    Feb 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024) 0.000329
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? 0.292678
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? 0.007555
    Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? 0.213829
    Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024? 0.116308
    Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? -0.001708
    Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? 0.097866
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? 0.032539
    Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? 0.518469
    Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) 0.003105
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? 0.106066
    Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? 0.005253
    Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? 0.000926
     
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