Egypt is currently grappling with a significant economic crisis characterized by high inflation, foreign currency shortages, and escalating debt levels. The Egyptian pound has depreciated by more than two-thirds against the dollar since March 2022, leading to a surge in the cost of living and eroding the standard of living for many Egyptian
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
while international support and government reforms are in place to address Egypt's economic challenges, the situation remains precarious. The success of these measures will depend on the effective implementation of reforms and the stabilization of both domestic and international economic conditions.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 01:59AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
80%
Yes
Nov 30, 2024 to May 30, 2026
20%
No
Nov 30, 2024 to May 30, 2026
Due to the growing tensions between Russia and countries belonging to NATO, due to the use of weapons and missiles from countries of this organization, the probability of an armed attack by Russia has grown.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
Yes
35%
No
Yes, Chinese organizations are working to produce EUV photolithography machines:
China is looking to manufacture its own EUV machines to compete with ASML, the world's largest producer of photolithography machines. However, some say that it would be extremely difficult for China to replicate ASML because the country lacks the know-how. ASML has never sold its most advanced EUV machines to Chinese customers due to previous restrictions.
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Since the BWC entered into force, no officially documented cases of biological weapons use by State Parties in armed conflicts have been recorded. However, concerns and allegations have arisen regarding biological weapons programs in some countries. For example, during the 1980s, it was alleged that the Soviet Union maintained a biological weapons program despite being a BWC signatory. Similarly, in the 1990s, it was discovered that Iraq had developed a biological weapons program prior to the Gulf War. These cases highlight the BWC’s limitations, particularly due to the lack of a formal verification mechanism to ensure compliance by State Parties. While the BWC clearly prohibits the use of biological weapons, the absence of a robust verification system has created challenges in effectively implementing and monitoring the treaty. Nevertheless, to date, there is no confirmed evidence of biological weapons being used in armed conflicts since the Convention entered into force in 1975.
Why might you be wrong?
The potential use of biological weapons in the coming years is a significant concern among experts, driven by several factors:
Advancements in Biotechnology and Artificial Intelligence (AI):
Rapid progress in biotechnology and AI has made it increasingly feasible to engineer pathogens with enhanced virulence or resistance to treatments. AI models trained on biological data could potentially be used to design pandemic-capable pathogens, raising alarms about the misuse of these technologies.
Evolving Threat Landscape:
The global security environment is shifting, with experts warning about the emergence of new threats, including the potential for AI-enhanced bioweapons. The integration of AI into biological research could lead to the creation of novel bioweapons, posing unprecedented challenges to global security.
International Concerns and Policy Responses:
International bodies are increasingly focused on the risks associated with biological weapons. The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2025, faces challenges in keeping pace with scientific advancements. There is an urgent need to modernize the BWC to address the evolving threats posed by new technologies.
In summary, while the use of biological weapons remains prohibited under international law, the rapid advancement of biotechnology and AI, coupled with evolving geopolitical dynamics, has heightened concerns about the potential for their development and use in the near future. Ongoing vigilance, international cooperation, and robust policy frameworks are essential to mitigate these risks.