0.002561
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Definitions | |||||
Putin's fate is strongly correlated to two things: 1) domestic politics - conscription has proved very unpopular, but there simply does not seem to be enough momentum for a popular revolution and there is no viable candidate that could challenge/replace Putin in the short term and 2) the Ukraine War and its economic effects - here an end to the war before 1 March 2023 is highly unlikely and the economic effects (at least of the sanctions) are far less severe than Western politicians would like to have us believe