0.001955
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Why do you think you're right?
Nota bene: the question regards 100 killed OR wounded.
Two main reasons why I think most forecasters underestimate the probability this might happen:
a) Russia might want to escalate further before the effect of US arms aid kicks in;
b) Russia might think they can break Ukrainian morale with further attacks on Kyiv;
c) Russia has stepped up attacks on infrastructure in recent weeks, see https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/26/russia-striking-ukraine-railways-to-paralyze-army-cargo-ukraine-source-a84972 and https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-hits-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-gas-production-facilities-2024-03-31/ ;
d) escalation ahead of Victory Day (9 May).
e) Russia wants to exploit lack of ammunition for Ukrainian air defences.
Why might you be wrong?
100 killed/wounded is a high number, so the probability is still quite remote.