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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
85%
(0%)
No
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 16, 2024 05:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
85%
No
Oct 16, 2024 to Apr 16, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Strategic flexibility: While some officials suggest a test could occur around the election, North Korea has other options for provocation, such as intercontinental ballistic missile tests or satellite launches, They may opt for these alternatives instead.
Post-election timing: The South Korean intelligence agency (NIS) indicated that a nuclear test would likely come after the U.S. election rather than before or during it. This suggests North Korea may prefer to wait and assess the new political landscape.
Diplomatic considerations: North Korea may want to avoid severely antagonizing the incoming U.S. administration, regardless of who wins. A nuclear test immediately before or after the election could limit diplomatic options.
Chinese influence: China has historically opposed North Korean nuclear tests. While relations between North Korea and China have reportedly deteriorated. Beijing's stance may still factor into Pyongyang's decision-making.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/north-korea-tests-nuke-test/
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/north-korea-nuclear-test-09262024050716.html
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Why might you be wrong?
While there appears to be no specific threats for late 2024 , the overall pattern of North Korean actions and statement, suggests a heightened risk of nuclear or missile tests in the lead-up to the U.S. election in November 2024.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has warned that North Korea is likely to stage major provocations before the U.S. election, including:
A nuclear test explosion
Long-range missile tests
Many analysts and South Korean officials believe North Korea could conduct nuclear tests or ICBM test-launches before the U.S. election in November 2024 to:
Increase its leverage in future diplomacy with the U.S.
Potentially win concessions like sanctions relief
On Oct.15th North Korea escalated tensions by detonating portions of roads and railways connecting the two Koreas on their side of the heavily guarded border. In response, South Korean forces reportedly fired warning shots near the demarcation line.. This action marks a significant escalation in the ongoing tensions between the two nations, symbolically severing one of the few remaining physical links between North and South Korea.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/09/north-korea-kim-nuclear-force-00178122
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Trump's election victory could potentially embolden Russia in several ways. Perceived weakened deterrence and recent successful attempts at exploiting divisions may lead Russia to view this as an opportunity to escalate its cyber activities against NATO countries.
The actual impact will depend on how Trump's administration implements policies, how NATO responds, and how other global actors react to developments.
https://stratcomcoe.org/cuploads/pfiles/Nato-Cyber-Report_11-06-2021-4f4ce.pdf
https://www.securityweek.com/nato-draws-a-cyber-red-line-in-
tensions-with-russia/
Why might you be wrong?
With several factors mitigating the risk of Russian cyber attacks, such as institutional safeguards, Congressional support for NATO, international pressure, and NATO resilience, there remains at least a moderate risk of such an attack.