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Tolga

Tolga Bilge
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I'm also on GJOpen:
https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Tolga

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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 30, 2024 09:39PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 64% 9%
No 36% 91%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 12%
No 90% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 88%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 22%
No 85% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 78%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:29PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 2%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:31PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 1%
No 96% 99%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:34PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 66% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 57%
No 34% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 43%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:38PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 1%
No 97% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 99%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:39PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:40PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 08:42PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 5%
No 98% 95%
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