RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:30AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	5%	+8%	+0%
No	87%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	95%	-8%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:32AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	8%	+2%	+1%
No	90%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	92%	-2%	-1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:32AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:34AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	1%	+3%	+0%
No	96%	99%	-3%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:42AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	66%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	54%	+12%	+5%
No	34%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	46%	-12%	-5%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:50AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	0%	+2%	+0%
No	98%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	100%	-2%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:54AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	0%
No	100%	99%	+2%	0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:54AM UTC
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	0%	+0%	0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:06PM UTC
(2 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(2 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	87%	+8%	+2%
No	5%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	13%	-8%	-2%

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