It looks as though Israel is invading, or is about to invade, Lebanon. I think this reduces the chances of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and one that holds for 30 days would be particularly difficult.
-0.226734
Relative Brier Score
96
Forecasts
26
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 17 | 25 | 148 | 96 | 481 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 15 | 16 | 46 | 30 | 95 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 6 | 36 | 26 | 88 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
80%
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
As the war in the Middle East expands, and the risk of Iran becoming more directly involved increases, the chance of this happening rises.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
98%
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
I think it's unlikely over this period, though not impossible.
One can imagine scenarios where this becomes more likely:
For example, the war in the Middle East expands and the US becomes directly involved, and China judges that the US is overextended in the Middle East + Europe. Add to that an additional coinciding crisis or two, for example, a particularly chaotic US election, and I think it the risk increases.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
100%
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Looks extremely unlikely, given the expanding war
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
94%
(+24%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
6%
(-24%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
It looks as though it is happening or will happen soon.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
5%
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
It looks as though it is happening or will happen soon.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Don't expect this to happen this year, but could see it happening in the coming years as the AI competitive dynamic between the US and China grows.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
66%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
34%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Maintaining forecast, which is anchored heavily to the base rate: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/138712
Files
Plugging the base rate data since 2020 into a Poisson model gives a 73% probability of a successful coup in the next 6 months.
Could you kindly clarify how exactly you arrive at this 73% probability here?
According to the VoA compiled data, the numbers of successful attempts in the 4-year period 2020-2023 are (1, 4, 2, 2). Fitting a Poisson distribution to them gives a lambda (mean) of 2.25, and a probability of at least one successful attempt in a calendar year (12 months) of ~89%. How do you go from this number to an estimate of 73% for a 6-month period? Am I missing something? Have you gone deeper into taking into account a finer date resolution (e.g. month level) of past attempts?
Thanks in advance
PS Even adding the Tunisian self-coup to the 2021 data (it is not there), thus changing the 2021 number from 4 to 5, drives the 12-month probability up only to ~92%...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Confirming forecast, don't see any chance of this with increasing tensions between Iran and Israel
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files