Forecasted Questions
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 08:53PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 08:53PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 0% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 100% | -2% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:33PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:33PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 8% | -6% | -4% |
| No | 98% | 92% | +6% | +4% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:37PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:37PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 1% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 97% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 99% | -2% | +1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:38PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 09:38PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |