Forecasted Questions
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 94% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 86% | +8% | +2% |
| No | 6% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 14% | -8% | -2% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 0% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 100% | -2% | +0% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:23PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:23PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 16% | +4% | 0% |
| No | 80% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 84% | -4% | 0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:32PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 22% | -17% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 78% | +17% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:34PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:34PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:55PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:55PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |