Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:30AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:30AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 13% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 5% | +8% | +1% |
No | 87% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 95% | -8% | -1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:32AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:32AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 8% | +2% | +1% |
No | 90% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 92% | -2% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:32AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:32AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | 0% |
Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:34AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:34AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
No | 96% | 99% | -3% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:42AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:42AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 66% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 55% | +11% | +6% |
No | 34% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 45% | -11% | -6% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:50AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:50AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 0% | +2% | +0% |
No | 98% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 100% | -2% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:54AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:54AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 01:54AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 30, 2024 01:54AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 0% | +0% | 0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:06PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:06PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
No | 98% | 95% | +3% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 95% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 86% | +9% | +1% |
No | 5% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 14% | -9% | -1% |