-0.148526
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 14 | 14 | 163 | 112 | 497 |
Comments | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
Questions Forecasted | 14 | 14 | 48 | 32 | 97 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 31 | 28 | 90 |
Definitions |
I still think the US and Iran both want to avoid direct conflict. I think a Trump presidency, which has become more likely, somewhat increases the risk, but this is counterbalanced by the increased possibility for de-escalation due to Israel's limited attack on Iran in response to their attack on Israel.
With just a month to go, and no signs of this on the horizon, with the difficulty of maintaining a pause for as long as 30 days, I see very little chance of this.
I don't think the risk of an attack on Taiwan in the next 6 months has changed much. A potential trigger could be chaos downstream from the US elections, though I'd expect to see signs of preparation underway - or perhaps a war in the Middle East that the US gets heavily drawn into.
Still looks extremely unlikely, I believe the conflict in the Middle East is still more likely to expand than contract.
Very unlikely with just 2 months to go, and no clear indicators that something like this is imminent. In the longer term (1-5 years), I could see this happening, as US - China competition intensifies.
Still looks extremely unlikely.
Haven't seen any news/events that updates me on this. As previously noted, they've announced plans for elections in November 2025.
Still looks extremely unlikely. I think a Trump presidency has become a little more likely however, and I could see Trump pushing for this again. I think his influence on the Middle-East is basically high variance, but when Israel-Saudi relations are already at a low, that means it's mostly an upside, at least as far as this question is concerned.
Haven't seen significant reasons/events to update on this, maintaining forecasts.