Non-state actors don't count, so the probability is low. I think Iran and the United States both want to avoid getting in a direct military conflict.
However, as the war in the Middle-East expands, the risk of both Iran and the United States being drawn in increases.
-0.148526
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 19 | 19 | 149 | 98 | 483 |
Comments | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
Questions Forecasted | 17 | 17 | 48 | 32 | 97 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 4 | 37 | 27 | 89 |
Definitions |
As the war in the Middle East expands, and the risk of Iran becoming more directly involved increases, the chance of this happening rises.
I think it's unlikely over this period, though not impossible.
One can imagine scenarios where this becomes more likely:
For example, the war in the Middle East expands and the US becomes directly involved, and China judges that the US is overextended in the Middle East + Europe. Add to that an additional coinciding crisis or two, for example, a particularly chaotic US election, and I think it the risk increases.
Looks extremely unlikely, given the expanding war
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt
It looks as though it is happening or will happen soon.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt
It looks as though it is happening or will happen soon.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt
Don't expect this to happen this year, but could see it happening in the coming years as the AI competitive dynamic between the US and China grows.
Maintaining forecast, which is anchored heavily to the base rate: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/138712
Plugging the base rate data since 2020 into a Poisson model gives a 73% probability of a successful coup in the next 6 months.
Could you kindly clarify how exactly you arrive at this 73% probability here?
According to the VoA compiled data, the numbers of successful attempts in the 4-year period 2020-2023 are (1, 4, 2, 2). Fitting a Poisson distribution to them gives a lambda (mean) of 2.25, and a probability of at least one successful attempt in a calendar year (12 months) of ~89%. How do you go from this number to an estimate of 73% for a 6-month period? Am I missing something? Have you gone deeper into taking into account a finer date resolution (e.g. month level) of past attempts?
Thanks in advance
PS Even adding the Tunisian self-coup to the 2021 data (it is not there), thus changing the 2021 number from 4 to 5, drives the 12-month probability up only to ~92%...
As the war in the Middle East expands, this is increasingly unlikely. Furthermore, there are only ~90 days for this to happen, and I haven't seen any recent reports that moves are being made on this.