Tolga

Only 2 months remain on this question, and I see neither signs in public communications that anything on this will change, nor in the fundamentals (the ongoing war) that drive this.

I still think the US and Iran both want to avoid direct conflict. I think a Trump presidency, which has become more likely, somewhat increases the risk, but this is counterbalanced by the increased possibility for de-escalation due to Israel's limited attack on Iran in response to their attack on Israel.

With just a month to go, and no signs of this on the horizon, with the difficulty of maintaining a pause for as long as 30 days, I see very little chance of this.

I don't think the risk of an attack on Taiwan in the next 6 months has changed much. A potential trigger could be chaos downstream from the US elections, though I'd expect to see signs of preparation underway - or perhaps a war in the Middle East that the US gets heavily drawn into.

Still looks extremely unlikely, I believe the conflict in the Middle East is still more likely to expand than contract.

Very unlikely with just 2 months to go, and no clear indicators that something like this is imminent. In the longer term (1-5 years), I could see this happening, as US - China competition intensifies.

Still looks extremely unlikely.

Haven't seen any news/events that updates me on this. As previously noted, they've announced plans for elections in November 2025.

Still looks extremely unlikely. I think a Trump presidency has become a little more likely however, and I could see Trump pushing for this again. I think his influence on the Middle-East is basically high variance, but when Israel-Saudi relations are already at a low, that means it's mostly an upside, at least as far as this question is concerned.

Haven't seen significant reasons/events to update on this, maintaining forecasts.