31st
Accuracy Rank

Tolga

Tolga Bilge
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-0.288277

Relative Brier Score

112

Forecasts

28

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 14 14 163 112 497
Comments 1 1 3 3 18
Questions Forecasted 14 14 48 32 97
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 31 28 90
 Definitions
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
0% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Only 2 months remain on this question, and I see neither signs in public communications that anything on this will change, nor in the fundamentals (the ongoing war) that drive this.
Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
97% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

I still think the US and Iran both want to avoid direct conflict. I think a Trump presidency, which has become more likely, somewhat increases the risk, but this is counterbalanced by the increased possibility for de-escalation due to Israel's limited attack on Iran in response to their attack on Israel.

Files
New Prediction

With just a month to go, and no signs of this on the horizon, with the difficulty of maintaining a pause for as long as 30 days, I see very little chance of this.

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New Prediction
Tolga
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

I don't think the risk of an attack on Taiwan in the next 6 months has changed much. A potential trigger could be chaos downstream from the US elections, though I'd expect to see signs of preparation underway - or perhaps a war in the Middle East that the US gets heavily drawn into.

Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Still looks extremely unlikely, I believe the conflict in the Middle East is still more likely to expand than contract.

Files
New Prediction

Very unlikely with just 2 months to go, and no clear indicators that something like this is imminent. In the longer term (1-5 years), I could see this happening, as US - China competition intensifies.

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New Prediction
Tolga
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Still looks extremely unlikely.

Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No

Haven't seen any news/events that updates me on this. As previously noted, they've announced plans for elections in November 2025.

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New Prediction
Tolga
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (+1%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
97% (-1%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Still looks extremely unlikely. I think a Trump presidency has become a little more likely however, and I could see Trump pushing for this again. I think his influence on the Middle-East is basically high variance, but when Israel-Saudi relations are already at a low, that means it's mostly an upside, at least as far as this question is concerned.

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New Prediction
Tolga
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
66% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
34% (0%)
No
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025

Haven't seen significant reasons/events to update on this, maintaining forecasts.

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Files
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