Confirmed previous forecast
0.093962
Relative Brier Score
85
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 85 | 85 | 85 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
3%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
3%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 08:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
18%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
82%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2024 08:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2025
80%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-7%)
Yes
65%
(+7%)
No
From the news it feels like Israel is not ready for a settlement. They want to destroy Hamas and Netanyahu needs the war.
Files
This is just a first estimate. Based on: probably Russia is too busy with Kursk.