117th
Accuracy Rank

Uair01

About:

Show more
View All Badges »
All Time Stats

0.257965

Relative Brier Score

129

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 19 32 129 129 129
Comments 0 3 34 34 34
Questions Forecasted 18 18 26 26 26
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 5 5 5
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Iran: Threats & Influence, Russia-Ukraine War, Science & Technology, Artificial Intelligence

Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs, Iran Nuclear Program, Semiconductor Supply Chain, Russian Disinformation, Decoding Disinformation

New Prediction

I have heard no news about risk of deposition. 

Files
New Badge
Uair01 earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 25 questions!
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Uair01 made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
95%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025

Just a random guess. May still be too soon for this.

Files
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Uair01 made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 49
0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
100%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 80

Russia shows some exhaustion by using NK forces. So hopefully no resources for more aggression. And so less perceived threat.

Files
New Prediction

Just baseline guess and availability bias.

Files
New Prediction

Cyber attacks are easy, but producing a kinetic effect is hard.

Files
New Prediction
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Uair01 made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025
70%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025

Purely based on the visible commitment of China to become a leader in AI.

Files
New Prediction

Adjusted to crowd, time and political situation. 

Files
New Prediction
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Uair01 made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 59
0% (0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30% (0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
70% (0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Uair01 made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Yes
90% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel