Because the TimeGPT forecast says 80, it is better to go for the range areound 80.
0.257765
Relative Brier Score
111
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 14 | 111 | 111 | 111 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 12 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
0%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
(+30%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
70%
(-30%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 59
0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
100%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Experiment with TimeGPT:
Date Amount
0 2021-01-01 78
1 2022-01-01 82
2 2023-01-01 14
3 2024-01-01 67
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Validating inputs...
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Preprocessing dataframes...
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Restricting input...
INFO:nixtla.nixtla_client:Calling Forecast Endpoint...
Date TimeGPT
0 2025-01-01 80.2967
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Just an experiment
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-3%)
Kharkiv
12%
(-3%)
Kyiv
6%
(+1%)
Odesa
Why do you think you're right?
Lowered risks somewhat.
Copilot:
The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russia has recently made significant advances, capturing towns like Selydove and Hirnyk[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-10-29/russia-took-196-square-km-of-ukraine-last-week-agentstvo-media-says?citationMarker=43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054 "1"). There are also reports of intensified attacks on major cities like Kharkiv and Kyiv[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-north-korea-troops-ukraine-war-beyond-borders-1976634?citationMarker=43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054 "2"). While it's difficult to predict specific future actions, the current trend suggests continued aggressive maneuvers by Russian forces.
The involvement of North Korean troops and the ongoing geopolitical tensions further complicate the scenario[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-north-korea-troops-ukraine-war-beyond-borders-1976634?citationMarker=43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054 "2"). The conflict is evolving rapidly, and major offensives could be part of Russia's strategy.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This is very difficult to predict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
No progress visible. And there's the Qatar problem.