Just vibes
0.036849
Relative Brier Score
157
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 22 | 22 | 209 | 188 | 345 |
| Comments | 12 | 12 | 89 | 80 | 125 |
| Questions Forecasted | 22 | 22 | 59 | 53 | 70 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-49%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
21%
(+10%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
17%
(+17%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
12%
(+12%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
10%
(+10%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Just vibes
Files
Status quo end of October is +23.x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This is not Trump's style
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I follow this passively
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-25%)
Yes
95%
(+25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Trump is exporting chips to China now
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I follow this passively
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
98%
(+1%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
See no reason from past behaviour. NK is a rational actor.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I follow this passively
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-4%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2027
96%
(+4%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
No reason while talks are in progress
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Just public news
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
13%
(-65%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
77%
(+65%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Crowd fits facts better
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I follow this passively
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-8%)
Yes
93%
(+8%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Crowd opinion feels sensible
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I follow this passively
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-40%)
Yes
90%
(+40%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Going with the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Going with the crowd
Files
@DKC thank you so much for the input. This changes the perspective.
I understood (wrong) that the period of total days of ceasefire must be "inside" 2025.
I will edit the comment above to avoid confusion.
Best regards, Dawna.