Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 02:18PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 13, 2025 02:18PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +1% |
| Latvia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 5% | 2% | +3% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 05:19PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 13, 2025 05:19PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 6% | 7% | -1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +1% |
| Georgia | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(8 days from now)
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 05:37PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 13, 2025 05:37PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | Jan 13, 2025 to Jan 13, 2026 | Apr 13, 2025 05:37PM | 9% | +16% | -5% |
| No | 75% | Jan 13, 2025 to Jan 13, 2026 | Apr 13, 2025 05:37PM | 91% | -16% | +5% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 05:49PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 13, 2025 05:49PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Jan 13, 2025 to Jan 13, 2026 | Apr 13, 2025 05:49PM | 7% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 90% | Jan 13, 2025 to Jan 13, 2026 | Apr 13, 2025 05:49PM | 93% | -3% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 06:11PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 13, 2025 06:11PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 2% | +16% | +0% |
| No | 82% | 98% | -16% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 06:19PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 13, 2025 06:19PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 31% | 6% | +25% | +0% |
| No | 69% | 94% | -25% | +0% |
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 14, 2025 12:57PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 14, 2025 12:57PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 8% | 6% | +2% | +0% |
| Kenya | 10% | 5% | +5% | -1% |
| Ethiopia | 70% | 25% | +45% | -3% |
| Nigeria | 20% | 3% | +17% | +0% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 14, 2025 01:09PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 14, 2025 01:09PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 60% | 9% | +51% | -2% |
| Bolivia | 15% | 13% | +2% | -4% |
| Ecuador | 40% | 8% | +32% | -1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 14, 2025 02:19PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 14, 2025 02:19PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 42% | 11% | +31% | -6% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 36% | 33% | +3% | +5% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 14, 2025 02:32PM
(2 months ago)
Jan 14, 2025 02:32PM
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38% | 39% | -1% | +2% |
| No | 62% | 61% | +1% | -2% |