RAND Forecasting Initiative

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2025 12:50PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	9%	+21%	-17%
No	70%	91%	-21%	+17%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2025 05:32PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	10%	+3%	-4%
No	87%	90%	-3%	+4%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2025 06:01PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	18%	12%	+6%	-7%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	80%	85%	-5%	+7%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(10 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2025 06:09PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	4%	+76%	-11%
No	20%	96%	-76%	+11%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2025 06:19PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	27%	2%	+25%	-1%
No	73%	98%	-25%	+1%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 12:02PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	8%	9%	-1%	+1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	28%	33%	-5%	+5%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	43%	43%	+0%	-1%
More than or equal to 90	18%	13%	+5%	-5%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 12:10PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Jan 13, 2025 to Jul 13, 2026	Apr 13, 2025 12:10PM	10%	+0%	+2%
No	90%	Jan 13, 2025 to Jul 13, 2026	Apr 13, 2025 12:10PM	90%	+0%	-2%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 12:23PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	1%	0%	+1%	-1%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	14%	4%	+10%	-10%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	57%	38%	+19%	-19%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	27%	51%	-24%	+24%
More than or equal to 80	1%	7%	-6%	+6%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 12:40PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	19%	6%	+13%	-13%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	73%	81%	-8%	+7%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	7%	12%	-5%	+5%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	1%	-1%	+1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2025 12:55PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Victor-Babaniyi

Victor Babaniyi

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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season