-
-0.007238
Relative Brier Score
279
Forecasts
22
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 31 | 40 | 373 | 279 | 1217 |
| Comments | 4 | 4 | 71 | 51 | 249 |
| Questions Forecasted | 28 | 31 | 85 | 56 | 264 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 29 | 22 | 105 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(+7%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
88%
(-7%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Upping due to Netanyahu saying a regime change will come a lot sooner than people think https://www.politico.eu/article/benjamin-netanyahu-iran-regime-change-video-israel-hezbollah-war/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
not sure what this threat is based on
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
91%
(+16%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
9%
(-16%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
6 months forecast+1%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+20%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
10%
(-20%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Increasing due to announcement that Israel is going in; "limited ground incursion" https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cg4qx62kkxxt
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
has not happened so far eventhough there have been locations to do it f0r a bit now
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-3%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
58%
(+3%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
2%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
no news and crowd is getting more confident as well
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
China seems to be working on expanding their military presence overseas. One of the interesting locations identified in the video is Equatorial Guinea https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIj5orZFJhg , with whom their ties have entered the next stage this year
http://english.scio.gov.cn/topnews/2024-05/30/content_117223219.htm .
Furthermore, Gabon may be interesting location for the Chinese https://www.eurasiantimes.com/second-chinese-military-base-in-africa/