Confirmed previous forecast
1.13201
Relative Brier Score
235
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 29 | 341 | 320 | 1636 |
| Comments | 0 | 8 | 207 | 189 | 847 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 28 | 80 | 72 | 325 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 125 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
20%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
70%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
10%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/11/28/rsf-military-push-for-kordofan-leaves-sudan-at-risk-of-partition
They want to go there, they have momentum form el-Fasher but timeline is very short
Files
Why might you be wrong?
change in tactic of either side leading to faster capturing of cities by RSF
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
previous quarters and time remaining + crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This quarter did see quite some very cold days where people needed more gas
100% is always kind of risky
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
19
0%
18
1%
17
99%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
Currently: 15, Italy could bring count up to 16 but I expect non of the other countries will.
- Italy: there is a chance https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/italy-recognise-palestine-only-if-hamas-excluded-all-hostages-freed-2025-09-23/
- Germany: no https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-won-t-support-recognition-of-palestinian-statehood-chancellor-merz-says/3669410
- US: no
- South Korea: I expect will follow US - found no news concerning plans to recognize palestine
- Japan: follows US https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d01183/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
South Korea / Japan could surprise?
Files