2.931622
Relative Brier Score
1254
Forecasts
110
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 30 | 365 | 316 | 1254 |
Comments | 0 | 3 | 69 | 58 | 634 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 26 | 83 | 58 | 266 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 28 | 27 | 110 |
Definitions |
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(+4%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
93%
(-4%)
No
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+15%)
Yes
25%
(-15%)
No
nvidia is ahead
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Oct 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Yes
35%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Previous reasoning but made error in the percentage