Confirmed previous forecast
2.49476
Relative Brier Score
274
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 17 | 33 | 374 | 313 | 1251 |
| Comments | 2 | 7 | 73 | 58 | 256 |
| Questions Forecasted | 17 | 30 | 84 | 58 | 266 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 5 | 29 | 27 | 110 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Star Commenter - Oct 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Yes
35%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files