RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.002463
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.168922
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM UTC	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	0.211498
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	-0.000437
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	-0.000687
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?	-0.000101
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	0.011963
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?	-0.279722
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	0.212539
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	0.786154
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.562169
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.002989
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.239637
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	0.086697
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	0.000027
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	-0.050721
Jun 29, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020?	-0.002

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