75th
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Yifan

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024? 0.177749
    Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? -0.098218
    Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025) 0.157506
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? -0.001073
    Jan 9, 2025 02:00PM Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025) 0.219857
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? -0.001366
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? 0.006127
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? -0.014793
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? 0.025618
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? 0.003228
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? -0.000374
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? 0.017981
    Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026? 0.006636
    Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? -0.223343
    Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024) 0.02243
    Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) 0.273657
    Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) 0.210374
    Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024) -0.000073
    Aug 2, 2024 05:29AM Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025? 0.010597
    Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? 0.000025
     
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