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75th
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Yifan
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Artificial Intelligence
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Formerly on Foretell
Global AI Race: Talent, Research, and Tech
How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
Immigration
Industry
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
Microelectronic Technologies
Public Attitudes
Research
Russia-Ukraine War
Science & Technology
Synthetic Biology in the Energy Sector
The Water Cooler
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Africa
Biotechnology and Biomedical Capabilities
China Lithography
Cybersecurity
Decoding Disinformation
EA College Tournament
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Economic Debt
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Iran-VNSAs
Manufacturing
metric-question
Microelectronics
Mission: AI Advancement
Mission: Diplomacy
Open RAN
Quantum Computing
Russian Disinformation
semiconductors
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Syria
U.S. tech sector
Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
0.177749
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
-0.098218
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)
0.157506
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
-0.001073
Jan 9, 2025 02:00PM
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025)
0.219857
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
-0.001366
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
0.006127
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
-0.014793
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
0.025618
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
0.003228
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
-0.000374
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
0.017981
Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
0.006636
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
-0.223343
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024)
0.02243
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)
0.273657
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)
0.210374
Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024)
-0.000073
Aug 2, 2024 05:29AM
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
0.010597
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
0.000025
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