Forecasted Questions
Participation in currently active questions
Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 7, 2025 04:08PM
(1 month ago)
Feb 7, 2025 04:08PM
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | 6% | -3% | -2% |
No | 97% | 94% | +3% | +2% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 59 | 4% | 3% | +1% | -1% |
Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 9% | 9% | +0% | -3% |
Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 13% | 33% | -20% | +0% |
Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 27% | 43% | -16% | +4% |
More than or equal to 90 | 47% | 13% | +34% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 30% | Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026 | May 27, 2025 02:48PM | 10% | +20% | +2% |
No | 70% | Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026 | May 27, 2025 02:48PM | 90% | -20% | -2% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 10% | 9% | +1% | +0% |
Bolivia | 5% | 12% | -7% | +0% |
Ecuador | 10% | 9% | +1% | +0% |
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Angola | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
Kenya | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
Ethiopia | 10% | 24% | -14% | +0% |
Nigeria | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025 | Mar 27, 2025 02:48PM | 7% | -2% | +2% |
No | 95% | Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025 | Mar 27, 2025 02:48PM | 93% | +2% | -2% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 5% | 4% | +1% | -2% |
Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 14% | 37% | -23% | -3% |
Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 66% | 51% | +15% | +4% |
More than or equal to 80 | 14% | 7% | +7% | +1% |
What will be Germanyβs net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 9% | 2% | 0% | +2% | +0% |
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 4% | 6% | -2% | -5% |
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 76% | 80% | -4% | +2% |
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 12% | 12% | +0% | +2% |
More than or equal to 40% | 6% | 1% | +5% | +1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 15% | 11% | +4% | -3% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 10% | 33% | -23% | +10% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |