RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 7, 2025 04:08PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	6%	-3%	-2%
No	97%	94%	+3%	+2%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	4%	3%	+1%	-1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	9%	9%	+0%	-3%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	13%	33%	-20%	+0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	27%	43%	-16%	+4%
More than or equal to 90	47%	13%	+34%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026	May 27, 2025 02:48PM	10%	+20%	+2%
No	70%	Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026	May 27, 2025 02:48PM	90%	-20%	-2%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	10%	9%	+1%	+0%
Bolivia	5%	12%	-7%	+0%
Ecuador	10%	9%	+1%	+0%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
Kenya	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
Ethiopia	10%	24%	-14%	+0%
Nigeria	3%	3%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025	Mar 27, 2025 02:48PM	7%	-2%	+2%
No	95%	Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025	Mar 27, 2025 02:48PM	93%	+2%	-2%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	5%	4%	+1%	-2%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	14%	37%	-23%	-3%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	66%	51%	+15%	+4%
More than or equal to 80	14%	7%	+7%	+1%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	2%	0%	+2%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	4%	6%	-2%	-5%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	76%	80%	-4%	+2%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	12%	12%	+0%	+2%
More than or equal to 40%	6%	1%	+5%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	15%	11%	+4%	-3%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	10%	33%	-23%	+10%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

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