75th
Accuracy Rank

Yifan

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Forecasted Questions
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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season
YifanAverageamongforecasters024681012141618202224Active Questions ForecastedScored Questions Forecasted

    Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

    Forecast Count:
    1 Forecast
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
    (5 years from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 7, 2025 04:08PM
    (1 month ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 3% 6%
    No 97% 94%

    How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (7 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
    (17 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than or equal to 59 4% 3%
    Between 60 and 69, inclusive 9% 9%
    Between 70 and 79, inclusive 13% 33%
    Between 80 and 89, inclusive 27% 43%
    More than or equal to 90 47% 13%

    In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (10 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
    (17 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
    Yes 30% Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026 May 27, 2025 02:48PM 10%
    No 70% Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2026 May 27, 2025 02:48PM 90%

    Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (7 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
    (17 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Argentina 10% 9%
    Bolivia 5% 12%
    Ecuador 10% 9%

    Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (7 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
    (17 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Angola 3% 5%
    Kenya 1% 4%
    Ethiopia 10% 24%
    Nigeria 3% 3%

    Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (10 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 27, 2025 02:48PM
    (17 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
    Yes 5% Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025 Mar 27, 2025 02:48PM 7%
    No 95% Feb 27, 2025 to Aug 27, 2025 Mar 27, 2025 02:48PM 93%

    What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (7 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
    (17 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than or equal to 49 1% 0%
    Between 50 and 59, inclusive 5% 4%
    Between 60 and 69, inclusive 14% 37%
    Between 70 and 79, inclusive 66% 51%
    More than or equal to 80 14% 7%

    What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (7 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
    (17 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than or equal to 9% 2% 0%
    Between 10% and 19%, inclusive 4% 6%
    Between 20% and 29%, inclusive 76% 80%
    Between 30% and 39%, inclusive 12% 12%
    More than or equal to 40% 6% 1%

    Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

    Forecast Count:
    5 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (10 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
    (17 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Togo 15% 11%
    Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 10% 33%

    Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    6 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (4 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Feb 27, 2025 03:28PM
    (17 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 1% 1%
    No 99% 99%
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