Forecasted Questions
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 03:22AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 03:22AM UTC
(30 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 16% | -12% | +3% |
| No | 96% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 84% | +12% | -3% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 09:38PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 09:38PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 8% | 7% | +1% | -1% |
| Armenia | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
| Georgia | 3% | 3% | +0% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 7% | 4% | +3% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
| Odesa | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 | Oct 24, 2024 | 84% | -4% | +26% |
| No | 20% | Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 | Oct 24, 2024 | 16% | +4% | -26% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:33PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:33PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 99% | -4% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:35PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:35PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | 96% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 5% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 92% | 95% | -3% | +1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:38PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 03:38PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 | Oct 24, 2024 | 0% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 | Oct 24, 2024 | 100% | -2% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 07:15PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 07:15PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025 | Dec 28, 2024 | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025 | Dec 28, 2024 | 95% | +2% | +0% |