152nd
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

About:

I am Electrical Engineer with a Master in Computer Science and one in Economics and Finances. PM4R Professional, ISO 9001:2015 Lead Auditor, LEGO MINDSTORM EV3 Robots Specialist, IEEE Senior Member and active volunteer in many organizations. I work with the Monitoring of the National SDG Agenda and I am an active promoter of STEM Careers, More participation of Women in Engineering, Data Science and the role that Technology and Tech Professionals have in the Sustainable Development of our Communities and the design and implementation of Public Policies.
I do believe data can be and most be used for the Sustainable Development of our Communities and projects like FORETELL should be supported, promoted and replicated as much as possible in US and around the World.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 10:22PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 7%
No 99% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 93%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 10:24PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 35% Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 22%
No 65% Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 78%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 10:24PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 21%
No 75% 79%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 10:24PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 8% 1%
No 92% 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 10:24PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 0%
No 98% 100%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 10:25PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 4% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 96% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 10:26PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 10:40PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 75% Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 24%
No 25% Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 76%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 12:18AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 07:51PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 Dec 4, 2024 1%
No 98% Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025 Dec 4, 2024 99%
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