RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 05:29AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	98%	97%	+1%	+1%
No	2%	3%	-1%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 05:29AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	5%	+3%	+0%
No	92%	95%	-3%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 05:30AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	0%	+2%	+0%
No	98%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	100%	-2%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 05:30AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	12%	-9%	+4%
No	97%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	88%	+9%	-4%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 01:25PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	0%	1%	-1%	-2%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	0%	8%	-8%	-20%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	0%	27%	-27%	+0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	85%	37%	+48%	+9%
More than or equal to 90	15%	27%	-12%	+14%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 01:30PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	32%	+33%	-11%
No	35%	68%	-33%	+11%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 01:54PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	15%	16%	-1%	-5%
Bolivia	3%	22%	-19%	-5%
Ecuador	15%	12%	+3%	-3%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 08:06PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:21PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	4%	+1%	-2%
No	95%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	96%	-1%	+2%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:22PM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	8%	0%	-4%
No	92%	92%	0%	+4%

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